What’s Affective Forecasting, And How Can It Help Us Make Better Decisions?

Knowing what to do in a given situation means making predictions about the future. 

Specifically, how will taking action make you feel?

A new job will make you feel happy. Splitting up with your partner won’t. Etc. 

This is what psychologists call affective forecasting. 

But humans aren’t very good at it. 

At least, we tend to overestimate the intensity and duration of future feelings. 

This tendency is called impact bias. 

Like other cognitive biases, impact bias is most likely a result of evolution. 

Let’s say you’re foraging. If the idea of finding a big stash of berries really excites you, you’ll be more motivated to forage. 

Today, though, impact bias can lead to poor choices. 

For instance, we may not do something because we fear a severe emotional reaction when, in fact, that won’t be the case at all. 

On the other hand, we may choose to do something based on an inflated expectation of happiness which never materialises. 

So, the next time you’re deliberating, take a little time to ask yourself whether you might be overegging the feeling of finding those berries.

It might just help you make better decisions.